In Italy, the number of monkeypox cases could be twice as high as the number of diagnosed cases. To say it are the results of an Italian-English study entitled "Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak" conducted by teacher. Massimo Ciccozzi, Professor of Molecular Epidemiology and Head of the Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology Research Unit of theUniversità Campus BIo-Medico di Roma, together with Antonello Maruotti of the Free University of SS. Maria Assunta, Irene Rocchetti of the Superior Council of the Judiciary e Thank you, Mar Bohning of the University of Southampton.
“To arrive at an estimate of undiagnosed infections, we relied on statistics” explains Ciccozzi. The researchers managed to simulate what the real situation could be by entering the numbers of infections from 10 different countries including Italy. And so in Italy, compared to 476 cases diagnosed at the end of July, there may actually be up to 2x more infections.
In the United Kingdom they would be 3,10 times more (7.653) than the 2.473 official cases, as well as in Brazil, where there are 1.367 census cases while statistics tell us that they could be 3,14 times more (4.303). “The data tell us that probably in Germany where the conversion rate between real cases and estimated cases is 2,20 the peak has already been reached, while in Brazil it has not, as well as in the UK, where it is estimated that it will come to an end Of this month" commented the professor.
But why are the undeclared numbers so high? The reasons seem to be multiple. On the one hand only a small number of tests are able to support the diagnosis and on the other the fact that the initial symptoms of the disease are highly specific, such as blisters on the palms of the hands and on the soles of the feet.
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