Researchers have created the first framework for optimizing interventions in the event of emergencies and epidemics similar to that of COVID-19
August 4, 2022 - Antonio Scala, first researcher of theInstitute of Complex Systems of the National Research Council (Cnr-Isc), e Gabriele Oliva, researcher ofUniversità Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, have developed in collaboration with the super-computing center of the Hokkaido University the first optimization framework to support intervention plans in the event of emergencies similar to COVID-19, i.e. in the event of epidemics characterized by a high rate of infection and capable of placing the health system, society and the economy under stress . The research is published in Plos One.
"The proposed model makes it possible to optimize the effects of vaccinations and those of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantines, social distancing or the obligation to wear masks”, explains Scala. “The published study shows how best to manage the goal of achieving herd immunity without creating congestion in the health system and taking into account multiple factors, such as different population classes, vaccines with different efficacy and with partial and delayed effect, the possibility of a second or subsequent doses and the availability of vaccines".
The methodology proposes a detailed and daily planning and provides insights on the clinical and decision-making level. “The framework confirms that, initially, vaccine shortages should be addressed by enforcing strict social distancing and proposes some vaccination priority strategies based on age and level of epidemic prevalence”, continues Scala. “A further possibility is to adjust the shot in the case of epidemics whose duration exceeds the expected or which, due to mutations of pathogens, turn into pandemics: in this case, using a closed-loop approach, the framework indicates how to ensure the best intervention based on the data available, rescheduling logistics when new factors come into play".
The publication represents the first scientific contribution of the research group of Ministry of Health for the GHSA (Global Health Security Agenda), whose presidency is currently Italian.
The research, entitled “Dynamic intervention planning against COVID-19-like epidemics” is available in Open Access format a this link.
